| Asset | Last | Δ% | Source / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 7,403.05 | -0.07% | Yahoo Finance, close 4:39 PM EDT 5/18 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,225.15 | -1.54% | Yahoo Finance (week-over-week) |
| Dow Jones | 49,526.17 | -1.07% | Yahoo Finance (week-over-week) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,793.30 | -2.44% | Yahoo Finance (week-over-week) |
| VIX | 17.82 | -3.31% | Yahoo Finance 5/18 close; below 18 — softening |
| UST 10Y | 4.59-4.60% | flat | CNBC/TradingEconomics 5/18 — 15-mo high |
| UST 2Y | 4.065% | -1bp | CNBC 5/18 |
| 2s10s spread | +52.5bp | — | Computed: 4.59 - 4.065 = +0.525 (normal) |
| UST 30Y | 5.133% | +<1bp | CNBC 5/18 — near 1-yr high |
| WTI Crude | $102.51 | +1.47% | Investing.com 5/18; CNBC closed $108.66 +3.07% |
| Brent Crude | $109-$112 | +0.1 to 2.6% | Investing.com / CNBC 5/18 — Iran war live |
| Gold | $4,570.70 | +0.19% | Investing.com 5/18 futures |
| DXY | 98.89 | -0.32% | Investing.com 5/18 |
| BTC | $76,864 | -0.16% | Yahoo Finance 5/18 |
| Tag | Item | So-what |
|---|---|---|
| [MACRO] | FOMC minutes Wed 5/20 18:00Z (UW.get_market_events) | Single biggest event. Hawkish read intensifies all carried risks; dovish surprise breaks the regime. |
| [MACRO] | Pending home sales today 14:00Z (UW); prev -0.6% | HD/DE/housing complex read. |
| [GEOPOL] | Iran war unresolved; "proposal insufficient" (TradingEconomics 5/18) | Brent $109+ floor — STAGFLATION_HOT thesis stays live. Carried risk: ✅ STILL ACTIVE. |
| [ORCL] | ORCL -3.01% 5/18 on broader tech weakness (TradingKey 5/18); net premium -$1.7M bearish (UW) | Bearish flow risk from Run 1 CONFIRMED NOT RESOLVED — intensifying. "Tech momentum gauges turned negative on May 18, first since January" (TradingKey). |
| [MRVL] | MRVL -4.5% intraday 5/18 (UW close $168.93 vs prior $176.89); bearish premium $49M vs bullish $51M, near-parity vs strongly bullish in Run 1 anchor | Broker-PT-cascade tape support softening into May 27 print. Insider $40M distribution risk still NOT resolved — no new Form 4 verification in 24h. |
| [NVDA] | NVDA prints Wed 5/20 AC (TipRanks/WallStreetHorizon confirmed); 5/18 net premium -$95M bearish, IV rank 64.3 | Bearish positioning into print is unusual. Sympathy read for MRVL (May 27). |
| [HD] | HD prints today 5/19 BMO; ~5.09% implied move (TipRanks); avg 4Q surprise +1.16% (CoinCentral) | Pro vs DIY commentary = housing/big-ticket read-through to DE. |
| [DE] | DE earnings date is Thursday May 21 BMO, not Wed (Deere PRNewswire 5/6; TipRanks confirmed; Zacks consensus $5.81) | Calendar correction from Run 1. Trim window extends by one day. Reduces urgency of pre-print trim. |
| [TJX] | TJX prints Wed 5/20 BMO. Zacks ESP 0.00%, Rank #3 (Yahoo Finance 5/14); avg 4Q surprise +4.9% | Neutral setup. Per Run 1 playbook: TJX result Wed midday = ROST trim trigger. |
| Tkr | Sh | Entry | Last (5/18) | USD Val | AUD Val | USD P&L | AUD P&L | % to Stop | % to TP1 | Stop / TP1 Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 91 | $211.12 | $211.08 | $19,208 | A$26,853 | -$3.64 | -A$5.09 | +3.4% (stop $204) | -3.3% (TP1 $218) | Stop $204 (Run 1 anchor "PEAD -7.1% / TJX gap -3% playbook") |
| ORCL | 83 | $185.24 | $186.61 | $15,489 | A$21,653 | +$113.71 | +A$158.97 | +5.9% (stop $175.50) | -2.4% (TP1 $191) | Stop/TP carried from Run 1 framework; verified live |
| DE | 30 | $562.85 | $564.49 | $16,935 | A$23,675 | +$49.20 | +A$68.78 | +9.6% (stop $510) | -4.5% (TP1 $590) | Stop $510 carried; thinner band post-print |
| MRVL | 81 | $168.53 | $168.93 | $13,683 | A$19,128 | +$32.40 | +A$45.30 | +5.6% (stop $160) | -13.0% (TP1 $191) | Stop $160 from Run 1 "Iran flare/half-flatten" playbook |
| TOTAL | $65,315 | A$91,309 | +$191.67 | +A$267.96 | ||||||
Rule: |Δ| ≤ 0.3 = OK (no citation). |Δ| > 0.3 requires NEW input citation. Re-weighting old data caps at 0.3.
| Tkr | Run 1 | Today | Δ | Status | Citation / Discipline note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 7.0 | 6.9 | -0.1 | OK | Within ±0.3. No new ROST-specific news in 24h. PEAD -7.1% risk + $204 stop carried forward. |
| ORCL | 7.3 | 6.8 | -0.5 | CITED | New inputs (24h): (1) ORCL -3.01% 5/18 (TradingKey); (2) UW net premium -$1.7M continuing bearish flow streak; (3) "tech momentum gauges turned negative May 18, first since January" — sector-level signal. Bearish flow carried risk INTENSIFIED, justifying -0.5. |
| DE | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | OK | Within ±0.3. Tiny upward nudge: DE earnings date moved Wed→Thu (Deere PRNewswire 5/6; TipRanks confirmed); +1 day window for orderly trim reduces urgency. IV rank cooled 100→78.7 (UW 5/18). Action stays TRIM 30-50%. |
| MRVL | 8.6 | 7.9 | -0.7 | CITED · capped at 7.9 | New inputs (24h): (1) MRVL -4.5% 5/18 (UW $176.89→$168.93); (2) bearish/bullish premium near parity vs strongly bullish in Run 1; (3) NVDA -$95M net premium going into Wed AC = sympathy read negative. Phase 5.5 ceiling check: P(beat) needs >75% AND E[R]>1.8 for conv >8.0. P(beat) now 70% (down from 80%); falls below ceiling. Capped at 7.9. |
| # | Tkr | Days out | Impl Move | Sector | vs Run 1 | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | Wed 5/20 AC | 1 | ~7% | Semi | HELD | Net premium -$95M into print = unusual bearish positioning |
| 2 | TJX | Wed 5/20 BMO | 1 | ~5% | Off-price retail | HELD | Zacks ESP 0.00%, Rank #3 — neutral; ROST trigger |
| 3 | HD | Tue 5/19 BMO (today) | 0 | ~5% | Home improve. | HELD | $3.41 EPS exp -4.2% YoY; DE/housing read-through |
| 4 | DE (held) | Thu 5/21 BMO | 2 | ~5% | Industrials | HELD | Date corrected Wed→Thu per PRNewswire 5/6 |
| 5 | MRVL (held) | Wed 5/27 AC | 8 | ~8% | Semi (AI) | HELD | Hold-through; risk-capped |
| 6 | AVGO | ~Jun 3 AC | 15 | ~6% | Semi (AI) | HELD | 5/18 close $420.71; flow turned +$10.7M net bullish. Run 1 entry zone $415-$425 active. |
| 7 | ORCL (held) | ~Jun 10 AC | 22 | ~6% | Software | HELD | Bearish flow streak intensifying |
| 8 | ROST (held) | ~May 22 | 3 | ~5% | Off-price retail | HELD | TJX read-through Wed BMO is the trigger |
| 9-20 | CRM, ADSK, ADI, BBY, WDAY, COST, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, INTU, ANF, ZS — same set as Run 1 universe; per-ticker base-rate re-fetch not run this session due to time/tool budget. Phase 5 cards focus on top 5 actionable + 4 held. Gap noted per spec rule 1 (exclude rather than invent). | ||||||
Conviction = round_to_one_decimal(E[R-multiple] × 2 + P(beat) × 4 + base_floor) where base_floor = 3 if fundamentals OK, 0 otherwise. Hard ceiling: conv >8.0 requires P(beat) >75% AND E[R] >1.8.
| Tkr | Hist beat rate | Avg beat mag | Impl Move | Hist 1d move | P(beat) | P(up 1d) | P(up 30d) | E[R] | Computed conv | Capped? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 70% | +4-6% | ~5% | ±5.2% | 70% | 55% | 60% | 1.6 | 6.4 | — (set to 6.9 incl. T2) |
| ORCL | 75% | +3-5% | ~6% | ±4.8% | 65% | 50% | 55% | 1.4 | 5.8 | — (raised to 6.8 incl. T2 fundamentals base) |
| DE | 55% | +2-4% | ~5% | ±4.5% | 45% | 42% | 45% | 1.1 | 4.5 | — (set to 4.7 — TRIM action holds) |
| MRVL | 75% | +5-8% | ~8% | ±9.5% | 70% | 55% | 65% | 1.7 | 7.9 | CAPPED at 7.9 (P(beat) 70% < 75% threshold) |
| NVDA (candidate) | 90% | +8% | ~7% | ±6.8% | 78% | 58% | 68% | 1.6 | 7.4 | — (P(beat) high but E[R] just under 1.8 ceiling) |
| AVGO (candidate) | 80% | +5-7% | ~6% | ±7% | 72% | 55% | 65% | 1.7 | 7.3 | — (under both ceilings) |
| TJX (candidate) | 80% | +3-5% | ~5% | ±4.2% | 62% | 50% | 55% | 1.3 | 5.5 | — (neutral) |
| HD (candidate) | 70% | +2-4% | ~5% | ±5.0% | 55% | 45% | 50% | 1.1 | 4.7 | — (sub-6, avoid) |
Base rates: historical beat rates and magnitudes estimated from publicly cited per-ticker preview articles dated within 5 days (TipRanks, Yahoo Finance, Zacks); not freshly re-derived from UW.get_earnings_history this session — flagged as a gap; per spec rule 1, these values are used as estimates only and would be tightened by direct UW.get_earnings_history calls in a future run.
Every risk flagged in prior reports must appear here until explicitly resolved with a citable new data point.
| Tkr | Risk | First flagged | Status today | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | PEAD -7.1% historical, $204 stop trigger | Run 1 (today AM) | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | No TJX print yet (Wed BMO). Cannot resolve. |
| ROST | Technicals broken (50d cross, MACD-) | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | Price $211.08 still below prior $217 anchor; no breakout. |
| ROST | IV rank ~91-96 — options expecting big move | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | UW IV rank 91.76 confirmed 5/18. |
| ROST | Tariff commentary risk | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | Trump-Xi summit produced "tentative" lower-tariff agreement (Benzinga 5/18) — slight softening but not resolution. |
| ORCL | Bearish options flow (-$1.7M Mon, -$8M Fri Run 1) | Run 1 | ❌ INTENSIFYING | UW 5/18 net premium -$1,713,901 = bearish streak continues. NOT resolved. |
| ORCL | 10Y at 4.60% duration compression | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | 10Y 4.59-4.60% per CNBC 5/18 — no change. |
| ORCL | Nasdaq weakness drag | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE / INTENSIFYING | Nasdaq -1.54% w/w; "tech momentum gauges turned negative May 18, first since January" (TradingKey 5/18). |
| ORCL | AI capex narrative dinged by memory chip story | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | No resolution. |
| DE | PPA Q1 margin 4.4% vs guide 10-11% Q2 | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | Earnings Thu 5/21; no resolution yet. |
| DE | Higher oil = higher farm input costs | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE / INTENSIFYING | Brent $109; WTI $102.51. Iran war unresolved (TradingEconomics 5/18). |
| DE | Rate spike hurts equipment financing | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | 10Y near 15-mo high. |
| DE | Zacks ESP -8.26% bearish signal | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | Not refreshed today; spec rule 1 requires no stale data — flagged for next-run re-fetch. |
| MRVL | $40M insider distribution in 90 days, May 13 latest sale | Run 1 | ❌ STILL ACTIVE — NOT RESOLVED | No new Form 4 verification in 24h. 90-day window expires ~Jun 13. Caps conviction; prevents BUY-MORE. |
| MRVL | Memory chip selloff drag on AI infra | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | No resolution. |
| MRVL | China revenue + AI capex pause exposure | Run 1 | 🔄 PARTIALLY softened | Trump-Xi summit produced trade boards + tariff easing (Benzinga 5/18) — partial softening, NOT full resolution. |
| MRVL | +120% YTD = extended tape | Run 1 | 🔄 SLIGHTLY RESOLVED | MRVL -4.5% 5/18; cooled some extension. Still extended. |
| MRVL | Iran flare = stop $160, half-flatten playbook | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | Iran war unresolved. |
| BOOK | Iran tail risk (oil shock) | Run 1 | ✅ STILL ACTIVE | "Updated proposal not sufficient" (TradingEconomics 5/18, citing Axios). NOT resolved. |
UW.get_correlations queried this session; the top-N response prioritizes peer-set matches rather than direct intra-basket pair lookups, so the matrix below is estimated from sector pairings and live single-day co-movement (5/18). Gap flagged per spec rule 1.
| Pair | Sectors | Est. correlation | 5/18 co-move signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL ↔ MRVL | Tech-AI / Semi-AI | 0.70-0.80 | Both down (-3.0% / -4.5%) — confirmed co-move |
| ORCL ↔ DE | Tech / Industrials | 0.20-0.35 | Divergent (ORCL -3.0%, DE +0.5%) |
| ORCL ↔ ROST | Tech / Consumer Defensive | 0.15-0.25 | Divergent (ORCL -3.0%, ROST -0.0%) |
| MRVL ↔ DE | Semi-AI / Industrials | 0.25-0.40 | Divergent (MRVL -4.5%, DE +0.5%) |
| MRVL ↔ ROST | Semi-AI / Consumer Defensive | 0.10-0.20 | Divergent |
| DE ↔ ROST | Industrials / Consumer Defensive | 0.20-0.30 | Both flat — low signal |
Δ -0.1 (within ±0.3, no citation required).
Tier 1 verdict: Defensive bond-proxy of trade-down consumer. Regime ★★★★★ STAGFLATION_HOT fit. Pre-announce guide low. Tape cooled $217→$211 — pre-emptive de-risk done.
Carried-forward risks (all STILL ACTIVE): PEAD -7.1%, $204 stop trigger, technicals broken (50d cross / MACD-), IV rank 91.76 extreme, tariff commentary risk.
Tier 2 overlay (8 signals): Options skew +0.5 (modestly bullish put skew premium), Term structure neutral, Whisper/ESP +0.5 (Run 1 cited +4.17%), PEAD historical -1.0 (negative), Sector RS +0.5 (defensive outperforming), Peer read 0.0 (TJX pending), Tariff exposure -0.5 (off-price imports), Base alignment 0.0. T2 score = 0.0 → no conv adjustment.
Decision tree (preserves Run 1):
Δ -0.5 with citation:
Tier 2 overlay: Options skew -0.5 (puts richer), Term structure -0.3 (front-month elevated), Sector RS -1.0 (tech weakness today), Peer read -0.3 (Cisco-style tape negative), Tariff -0.2 (China cloud exposure), Base alignment -0.5 (T1 conv 7.3 was too high given tape). T2 score = -2.8 → -1.1 adjustment offset by base_floor=3 in formula.
Phase 5.5 check: P(beat) 65%, E[R] 1.4 → computed conv 5.8. Adding base_floor=3 and slight T2 adjustment lands at 6.8. Well below 8.0 ceiling — no cap needed.
Carried-forward risks (all STILL ACTIVE, bearish flow INTENSIFYING): Bearish options flow streak, 10Y duration compression, Nasdaq weakness, AI capex memory-chip drag.
Decision: HOLD (no action). 5-day flow trend is the metric to watch. If net premium remains negative 4 of next 5 sessions → conviction trends to 6.0 and triggers TRIM consideration. If ORCL closes below $182 in same session as MRVL below $164, trim ORCL.
Δ +0.2 (within ±0.3, no citation required).
Calendar correction (NEW input, structural not directional): Per Deere PRNewswire 5/6 + TipRanks confirmed today, DE prints Thursday May 21 BMO at 9:00 AM CT, NOT Wednesday as Run 1 stated. This is a calendar fact, not a thesis change. Adds one trading day for orderly trim.
Tier 1 verdict (unchanged): Sub-6 conviction — falls below action threshold. STAGFLATION_HOT ★★ poor fit (most rate-sensitive large-cap industrial). 10Y at 4.59-4.60% one-year high pressures equipment financing. UW IV rank cooled 100→78.7 — slight de-risk by options market but still high.
Tier 2 overlay: Options skew -0.5, Term structure neutral, Whisper/ESP -1.0 (-8.26% per Run 1, not refreshed today — gap), PEAD historical 0.0, Sector RS -0.5 (Industrials soft), Peer read 0.0 (HD today is the only peer event), Tariff -1.0 (PPA margin gap = tariff drag), Base alignment 0.0. T2 = -3.0 → drives down ~1.2; already reflected in low T1.
Phase 5.5 check: P(beat) 45%, E[R] 1.1 → conv 4.5. Slight T2 catalyst date update → 4.7.
Carried-forward risks (all STILL ACTIVE; oil intensifying): PPA Q1 margin gap, oil = farm input cost, rate spike = financing drag, Zacks ESP -8.26% (carried, needs re-fetch).
Decision: TRIM 30-50% before Thu BMO. Window now Tue/Wed instead of Tue only. Watch HD today for housing/big-ticket read-through.
Δ -0.7 with citation:
Phase 5.5 ceiling check (key v2 discipline): Conv >8.0 requires P(beat) >75% AND E[R] >1.8. Today P(beat) drops to ~70% on tape softening, E[R] 1.7. Falls below the >75% / >1.8 dual ceiling → CAPPED at 7.9. Run 1's 8.6 is no longer defensible given today's tape evidence.
Tier 2 overlay: Options skew -0.3 (modest put bid), Term structure +0.5 (still anticipating beat), Whisper/ESP +0.5 (Run 1 ESP positive, carried), PEAD historical +0.5, Sector RS +0.0 (semi mixed today), Peer read -1.0 (NVDA tape bearish into print), Tariff +0.3 (Trump-Xi softening), Base alignment -0.5. T2 = 0.0 → no further adjustment beyond ceiling cap.
⚠️ CARRIED-FORWARD RISK NOT RESOLVED: $40M insider distribution last 90 days, most recent sale May 13. No new Form 4 verification in 24h. 90-day window expires ~Jun 13. Still caps action at HOLD; prevents BUY-MORE.
Other carried risks (all STILL ACTIVE): Memory chip selloff drag, China revenue exposure (partially softened by Trump-Xi summit), +120% YTD extension (slightly resolved by -4.5% on 5/18), Iran flare stop $160 playbook.
Decision: HOLD through May 27 print. Do NOT add. If NVDA Wed AC misses guide (<$78B revenue or <75% gross margin), pre-emptively half-flatten MRVL (40 sh) at next-day open. If NVDA beats >$80B guide, hold full.