Yesterday's two big binaries resolved overnight — the FOMC minutes printed hawkish (8–4, four dissents) yet yields fell , and NVDA beat but moved only +1.4% after hours, confirming the AI-infra read-through is already priced. The regime is still STAGFLATION_HOT but de-intensifying at the margin. The book mutated per plan: MRVL half-trimmed at the $189 level yesterday's report pre-set, DELL added, DE queued for a pre-market exit ahead of its BMO print today. The dominant risk is no longer macro — it is that MRVL + DELL now make up 54% of book conviction in one AI-hardware theme reporting back-to-back next week.
| Asset | Last | vs 5/20 anchor | Source / timestamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX (close 5/20) | 7,353.61 | 3rd straight loss | Benzinga, close 20 May |
| Nasdaq Comp (5/20) | 25,870.71 | -0.84% | Benzinga, close 20 May |
| DJI (5/20) | 49,363.88 | -322 pts | Benzinga, close 20 May |
| ES futures | 7,453.50 | +0.02% | UW 21 May 05:27 UTC |
| NQ futures | 29,414.75 | +0.08% | UW 21 May 05:27 UTC |
| RUT futures | 2,819.90 | -0.04% | UW 21 May 05:27 UTC |
| VIX future | 19.93 | -7.6% (was 20.48) | UW 05:27 UTC — easing |
| UST 10Y | 4.57% | -10 bp (was 4.67) | UW yield curve 5/20 |
| UST 30Y | 5.11% | -8 bp (was 5.19) | UW yield curve 5/20 |
| UST 2Y | 4.04% | 2s10s +53bp (steep) | UW yield curve 5/20 |
| WTI | $98.93 | -5.2% (was 104.36) | UW commodity fut 05:10 UTC |
| Brent | $105.64 | -4.8% (was 110.95) | UW commodity fut 05:10 UTC |
| Gold (XAU) | $4,532 | +1.2% (was 4,478) | UW commodity fut 05:10 UTC |
vs prior session: same bucket, de-intensifying . Yesterday was "intensifying" with 30Y at a 19-yr high and negative dealer gamma. Overnight: yields fell (10Y -10bp, 30Y -8bp), oil fell (WTI -5.2%), VIX eased to ~19.9, and SPX dealer gamma flipped positive (vol-suppressive). The knife-edge has dulled, but the oil-inflation + hawkish-Fed frame is intact.
| Tag | Time | Item / "so-what" |
|---|---|---|
| [NVDA peer] | 5/20 18:12 ET | NVDA beat : EPS $1.87 vs ~$1.77, rev ~$82B (+85% YoY), DC +92% to ~$75B, $80B buyback + dividend hike, Q2 guide ≈ beat — yet only +1.37% after hours . Read-through to MRVL/DELL/ORCL is already priced. Benzinga tracker: NVDA 1d post-ER median +0.1%, win-rate ~50%. |
| MACRO | 5/20 18:00Z | FOMC May minutes hawkish 8–4; oil-inflation cited. But yields fell next session → hawkish tone was pre-priced. Resolves yesterday's "FOMC binary." |
| GEO | 5/20 | US–Iran standoff keeps oil elevated & inflation expectations sticky; Strait of Hormuz risk. Energy structurally bid. |
| [MRVL] | 5/20 | Oppenheimer maintained Buy, PT raised $170→$200 ; Wells Fargo Buy $195 . Recent PT cluster now $190–200 vs spot $186.80. Evercore $155 now the outlier low. Pre-print analyst momentum constructive. [UW analyst_ratings 5/20] |
| [CHINA/ag] | 5/20 04:56 ET | US–China expand trade: Boeing jets, beef export resumption, rare-earth talks. Mild positive for ag/industrials (DE-relevant, though exiting). [Reuters via Benzinga] |
| [LABOR] | 5/20 | ADP proxy: private payrolls +42,250/wk vs 33,000 prior — labor still firm, hawkish-leaning. [Benzinga 5/20] |
| CAL | Today 5/21 | Heavy premarket data 08:30–09:45 ET: jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, Philly Fed; flash PMIs 09:45. DE BMO. ROST AMC. [UW market_events] |
Gap (live-data rule): Benzinga ticker-news endpoint returned the general feed rather than ticker-filtered results; ROST/MRVL/DELL single-name 24h catalysts beyond the above were not independently confirmable via Benzinga. Those names rest on live price action, earnings history, options & analyst data (all freshly fetched). No fresh DE-specific rating surfaced.
| Tkr | Sh | Entry | Last (5/20) | USD Val | P&L USD | P&L AUD | IV rk | % to stop | Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 91 | 211.12 | 217.79 | 19,818.89 | +606.97 | +848.6 | 98.5 | n/a | Thu 5/21 AMC |
| ORCL | 83 | 185.24 | 188.16 | 15,617.28 | +242.36 | +338.8 | 90.4 | +7.5% | ~Jun 10 |
| DE | 30 | 562.85 | 560.46 | 16,813.80 | -71.70 | -100.2 | 89.1 | EXIT | Thu 5/21 BMO |
| MRVL | 41 | 168.53 | 186.80 | 7,658.80 | +749.07 | +1,047.2 | 93.8 | +4.9% | Wed 5/27 AMC |
| DELL | 31 | 244.725 | 242.93 | 7,530.83 | -55.64 | -77.8 | 93.4 | +8.4% | Thu 5/28 AMC |
| TOTAL | — | — | — | 67,439.60 | +1,471.05 | +2,056.6 | — | — | 3 report ≤7d |
| Tkr | Last | Stop | TP1 | Source | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | 186.80 | ~178.00 | — | trade log 5/20 (raised from 163) | residual 41sh; +4.9% above stop; riding into 5/27 |
| DELL | 242.93 | ~224.00 | — | trade log 5/20 entry | +8.4% above stop; "set firmer post-NVDA" |
| ORCL | 188.16 | 175.00 | 194.00 | yesterday report §9 | +7.5% above stop; recovered hard off 178.80 intraday low 5/20 |
| ROST | 217.79 | 205.50 | 226.50 | yesterday report §5.5 | +2.4% since y'day; ~4% below TP1; decision today pre-AMC |
| DE | 560.46 | EXIT | — | trade log 5/20 plan | sell pre-market today ahead of BMO print |
| Rk | Tkr | Report | Days | IM % | MktCap $B | Sector | vs Yesterday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRVL ★ | 5/27 AMC | 6 | 13.8 | 163 | Tech semi | HELD (was #5) |
| 2 | ZS | 5/26 AMC | 5 | 12.8 | 28 | Tech cyber | up (was #15) |
| 3 | SNOW | 5/27 AMC | 6 | 11.9 | 58 | Tech data | up (was #10) |
| 4 | DELL ★ | 5/28 AMC | 7 | 11.2 | 77 | Tech server | HELD (was #9) |
| 5 | AVGO | 6/3 AMC | 13 | 9.1 | 1,978 | Tech semi | up (was #2) |
| 6 | PANW | 6/2 AMC | 12 | 9.7 | 201 | Tech cyber | ≈ (was #7) |
| 7 | CRWD | 6/3 AMC | 13 | 9.7 | 165 | Tech cyber | ≈ (was #6) |
| 8 | HPE | 6/1 AMC | 11 | 10.2 | 45 | Tech server | ≈ (was #13) |
| 9 | WDAY | 5/21 AMC | 0 | 9.8 | 27 | Tech SaaS | ≈ (was #17) |
| 10 | DG | 6/2 BMO | 12 | 9.4 | 23 | Cons Def | NEW |
| 11 | CRM | 5/27 AMC | 6 | 8.4 | 166 | Tech SaaS | down (was #4) |
| 12 | ZM | 5/21 AMC | 0 | 7.6 | 26 | Comm | ≈ (was #18) |
DROPPED (printed since yesterday): NVDA, WMT, INTU, TGT — now peer reads, not candidates. EXCLUDED on filters: WMT/COST (IM<4%), MDB/TTWO (ADV<2M), OKTA/HPQ/LULU (mktcap<$20B), MDT/PDD/CRDO (non-US). 10 of 12 are Technology — the board is colliding with a tech-unfriendly regime.
Per v2: conviction is derived from base rates. Formula: Conv = round(E[R]×2 + P(beat)×4 + base_floor) , capped at 7.9 unless P(beat)>75% AND E[R]>1.8.
| Signal | ROST | ORCL | MRVL | DELL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Options skew | Neutral 0 | Neg -0.4 | Neutral 0 | Neg -0.2 |
| 2. Term structure (front IV bid) | +0.4 (IVrk 98.5) | +0.1 | +0.6 (IV 129%) | +0.5 |
| 3. Whisper / analyst momentum | +0.3 (PTs high, but 5/18=reweight) | 0 | +0.5 (Oppy/WF raised 5/20) | +0.2 |
| 4. PEAD historical 1d | +0.5 (clean beats) | 0 (mixed) | -0.2 (bimodal) | -0.2 (bimodal) |
| 5. Sector RS vs SPY | +0.4 (defensive trade-down) | -0.4 (long-dur) | -0.3 (semi rotation) | -0.3 (hardware) |
| 6. Peer read-through | +0.2 (TJX/TGT this week) | +0.1 (NVDA AI demand) | +0.3 (NVDA DC +92%) | +0.4 (NVDA DC +92%) |
| 7. Tariff / China | -0.5 (textile tariff) | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 8. T1↔T2 alignment | +0.4 aligned | 0 mixed | +0.2 aligned | +0.1 aligned |
| T2 sum | +1.7 | -0.7 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| Final conviction | 8.0 | 5.6 | 7.9 (cap) | 7.9 (cap) |
T2 informs but does not override the §5.5 derivation or the anchoring caps. MRVL/DELL pinned at the 7.9 ceiling (P(beat)<75%); ROST anchoring-capped at 8.0.
Anchor: yesterday's report (2026-05-20), used for evolution comparison only — not as a data input. All of today's values are live-fetched.
| Tkr | Yest. | Today | Δ | Status | New inputs cited (last 24h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 7.86 | 8.0 | +0.14 | CAPPED | Price +2.4% (217.79). Analyst 5/18 = reweight (NOT new). Capped to band. |
| ORCL | 5.14 | 5.6 | +0.46 | CITED/OK | Price +3.7% recovery off 178.80 low. Within reweight+price band (5.64). |
| MRVL | 7.78 | 7.9 | +0.12 | CITED/OK | Oppy PT 170→200 (5/20), WF $195 (5/20), NVDA priced read (5/20) — all NEW. |
| DELL | — | 7.9 | new | NEW POSN | Added 5/20 @ $244.725 (was rank-9 candidate). NVDA DC +92% read. |
| DE | 4.82 | EXIT | — | EXITING | Confirmed reports premarket today; plan = sell pre-open. No conv update. |
| Tkr | Risk | Status | Resolving data? |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | Tariff on Asian textile imports | ✓ ACTIVE | No resolving data |
| ROST | Pre-earnings IV crush (rank 98.5) | ✓ ACTIVE | Resolves TODAY post-AMC |
| ORCL | Securities-fraud class actions (Mar 2026) | ✓ ACTIVE | No resolving data — proceeding |
| ORCL | $50B FY26 capex / FCF -$10B | ✓ ACTIVE | Marks at Jun 10 print |
| ORCL | Schiff energy-cost bill (5/18) | ✓ ACTIVE | No resolving data |
| MRVL | Pre-earnings IV crush (ATM IV 129%) | ✓ ACTIVE | Resolves 5/27 |
| MRVL | AI supply-bottleneck (Seagate read) | ↻ PARTIALLY RESOLVED | NVDA 5/20 DC +92% confirms demand intact (cited) |
| MRVL | Evercore PT $155 below spot | ✓ ACTIVE (contextualized) | Oppy/WF raised to $195–200 (5/20) — Evercore now outlier low |
| DELL | Q1 = the one quarter it missed last yr (-8.28%) | ✓ ACTIVE (new) | Resolves 5/28 |
| DELL | Pre-earnings IV crush (rank 93) | ✓ ACTIVE (new) | Resolves 5/28 |
| BOOK | MRVL+DELL = 54% of conviction, one AI-hardware theme, back-to-back prints | ✓ ACTIVE (new) | Resolves 5/27–5/28 |
| DE | Zacks ESP -8.26% / PPA margin gate / stagflation drag | ↻ RESOLVING | Via planned exit today (pre-print) |
Live UW correlations pulled across ROST/ORCL/MRVL/DELL. No held-held pair appears in the top-100 correlation set → pairwise correlations below universe threshold (avg < 0.4). MRVL top correlates are semis (SNX, AEHR); ROST top correlates are retail (FIVE, SPHR) — sector dispersion confirmed.
| Active book (post DE-exit) | Conviction |
|---|---|
| ROST | 8.0 |
| MRVL | 7.9 |
| DELL | 7.9 |
| ORCL | 5.6 |
| Raw sum (of max 40) | 29.4 |
| Correlation-adjusted (corr < 0.4 → no penalty) | 29.4 |
A. 8/8 beat streak into a stagflation tape that favors trade-down spend. P(beat) 78%.
C. Priced-in 6/10: IV rank maxed (98.5) = event fully expected; low ~3.8% implied move.
E. Catalyst chain: (1) trade-down comp accel, (2) spring season, (3) tariff cost commentary, (4) Q2 guide tone. ≥3 ✓.
F. Risk: tariff (Asian textiles, ACTIVE); IV crush; low IM means a beat barely pays.
G. ACTION: HOLD full into AMC. Conv 8.0 (anchoring-capped). Partial trim defensible to harvest peak IV, but 8/8 base rate justifies hold-through. Stop $205.50.
A. AI custom-silicon; 7/8 beat but magnitude compressed to ~1%. Oppy/WF raised PTs to $195–200 (5/20).
C. Priced-in 7/10: NVDA confirmed demand but it's priced; +5.97% since yesterday.
E. Catalyst chain: (1) custom-silicon ramp, (2) 800G/1.6T optical, (3) hyperscaler bookings, (4) margin guide. ≥3 ✓.
F. Risk: bimodal (-18.6%/+18.4% in last 4); IM 13.8%; half of book's concentration cluster.
G. ACTION: HOLD residual 41 sh. Half already monetized at $189/$191 (per plan). No add. Stop ~$178.
A. AI-server play; 7/8 beat, but the one miss (-8.28%) was this same Q1 a year ago. NVDA DC +92% is a positive read — but priced.
C. Priced-in 6/10: -0.7% on entry; AI-server narrative well known.
E. Catalyst chain: (1) ISG/AI-server orders, (2) NVDA read-through, (3) Seagate/Micron supply, (4) margin/guide. ≥3 ✓.
F. Risk: bimodal (+21.9%/-8.9%); Q1-miss precedent; other half of concentration cluster.
G. ACTION: HOLD new position; set stop firmer ~$224 now NVDA is out.
A. Mixed 50% beat history; recovered hard off $178.80 intraday low 5/20 to close $188.16 (+3.7%).
C. Priced-in 6/10: de-rated from $345 highs.
F. Risk (all ACTIVE): securities-fraud class actions; $50B capex/FCF -$10B; Schiff energy bill. Long-duration name most exposed to hawkish-Fed re-acceleration.
G. ACTION: HOLD, tight stop $175. Pre-earnings decision deferred to ~Jun 8–9.
A. Yesterday conv 4.82 (Watchlist). Zacks ESP -8.26% (model disfavors beat), ~3% implied move (beat barely pays, miss risks -$18), stagflation cyclical drag. Fails v2 filters.
G. ACTION: SELL ALL 30 sh pre-market, ahead of the BMO print (user-confirmed). Mark $560.46 (-A$100). Frees ~A$23.4k. §Timing: DE reports premarket — the exit must be a pre-open / pre-market order, not "at the cash open," or it sells into the post-print gap.
Key insight: the entire candidate board is long-duration tech into a tech-unfriendly regime, and the book is already 54% AI-hardware. No initiations until MRVL/DELL prints clear and free the concentration.
If adding later: prefer a non-tech diversifier (DG 6/2 cons-defensive) over another semi/SaaS name.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Today ~07:00–08:00 | DE Q2 BMO (HELD → EXIT) | Exit pre-print; do not hold the binary |
| Today 08:30 | Jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, Philly Fed | Stagflation confirm/deny |
| Today 09:45 | S&P flash PMI mfg/svcs | Growth pulse |
| Today AMC | ROST Q1 (HELD) + WDAY, ZM, TTWO | Binary for 91-sh held position |
| Fri 5/22 | Leading indicators, consumer sentiment (final) | Demand pulse |
| Tue 5/26 | ZS AMC (cyber) | SaaS read into MRVL/DELL week |
| Wed 5/27 AMC | MRVL Q1 (HELD) + SNOW, CRM | First leg of AI-hardware concentration |
| Thu 5/28 AMC | DELL Q1 (HELD) + COST | Second leg — back-to-back with MRVL |
| Scenario | Prob | Trigger | Book impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | Today's data soft-ish (claims up, PMI cools) → yields keep falling; ROST beats & affirms guide; DE exited clean pre-print | Book +2–4%; ROST +3–5%, ORCL/MRVL relief on lower yields |
| Base | 50% | Data mixed; regime holds STAGFLATION_HOT but calm; ROST beats with IV crush (muted price); DE exit at ~$558 | Book flat to +1%; ROST chops post-crush, DE realized -A$100, MRVL/DELL drift to prints |
| Bear | 20% | Hot data (claims low, PMI hot) re-ignites hike fear; yields snap back up; ROST in-line but tariff-hit guide | Book -3–5%; ORCL tests $175 stop, MRVL/DELL de-rate pre-print, ROST round-trips the IV |
Probabilities sum to 100%. Bull tilt slightly higher than yesterday (30 vs 25%) because dealer gamma flipped positive (vol-suppressive) and yields eased — the tail is less fat than yesterday's negative-gamma tape.