The book is fully loaded into a five-print, three-session gauntlet — ZS tonight, MRVL and CRM tomorrow, DELL and MDB Thursday — with essentially no dry powder left to add or average. Over the long weekend the macro tape did something the prior report did not yet see: oil broke nearly 6% lower and risk-on futures bid the open, draining the stagflation tail that drove the RISK_OFF lean. Yet the one thing that decides how these prints trade — dealer gamma — flipped and is now firmly net-positive, which means rallies get sold and spikes fade. The contradiction resolves cleanly into one instruction: every event name is a POP-SELL. The dominant risk is not any single print; it is that six names sit in two tight clusters with five binaries stacked on top of each other and no buffer to absorb a beat-and-gap-down. The job from here is exiting into strength, not adding. Two housekeeping flags carry: the trigger line's DE/MRVL-81sh book is stale and was overridden by the journal, and ORCL sits 1.6% above its stop — the tightest leash on the book.
§0 Book Reconciliation & Live-Data Policy
⚠ Book divergence — flagged, not silently reconciled
Today's trigger line listed
DE 30sh @ 562.85, MRVL 81sh @ 168.53. Both are
stale: DE was closed 5/21 (@570.82, +A$334.3) and MRVL is
41sh (40 trimmed 5/20), not 81. Per the standing rule —
the journal OPEN POSITIONS header is the authoritative live book — and your "check journal" instruction, this run marks the
6-name journal book: MRVL 41 · ORCL 83 · DELL 31 · ZS 48 · CRM 48 · MDB 44. If you re-entered DE or scaled MRVL since 5/23, reply and I'll re-mark.
(This rule is now saved to memory so future runs don't re-litigate the book.)
Live-data policy
No market data reused from prior reports or conversation. Every datum below is fetched this session with source + timestamp; the 5/23 report is the
evolution anchor only.
Anchoring caveat that shapes this whole report: the last completed US session (5/22) is the
same session the 5/23 report already marked — so single-stock closing marks are unchanged and most convictions correctly sit flat. The genuinely NEW inputs this run are: (1) 5/25 holiday futures, (2) WTI −5.7% / Brent −5.2%, (3) Morgan Stanley downgrade of ZS, (4) Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair, (5) fresh cyber peer reads (Varonis / Tenable).
§1 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | vs prior | Source / timestamp |
|---|
| S&P 500 (close 5/22) | 7,473.47 | +0.37% · 8th straight wk | TheStreet/Yahoo 5/22 |
| Nasdaq Comp (5/22) | 26,343.97 | +0.19% | 5/22 close |
| Dow (5/22) | 50,579.70 | +0.58% · RECORD | 5/22 close |
| ES futures | 7,563.75 | +0.97% | UW 5/25 14:24 UTC |
| NQ futures | 29,988.50 | +1.45% | UW 5/25 14:24 UTC |
| RUT futures | 2,917.00 | +1.56% | UW 5/25 14:24 UTC |
| VIX future | 18.95 | −2.98% | UW 5/25 14:24 UTC |
| WTI crude | $91.07 | −5.72% | UW 5/25 14:25 UTC |
| Brent crude | $95.03 | −5.17% | UW 5/25 14:25 UTC |
| Gold | $4,604 | +1.05% | UW 5/25 14:25 UTC |
| UST 10Y | 4.56% | −2.6bp · 1-wk low | TradingEconomics 5/22 |
| UST 2s10s | +49bp | positive / normal | UW yield curve 5/21 |
| SPY dealer gamma | +1.11M | net POSITIVE, strengthening | UW GEX 5/22 |
§2 Regime Classification
Regime = STAGFLATION_HOT → softening toward RISK_ON · vs prior: SAME bucket, de-intensifying
The de-escalation is the story. Oil broke −5.7% (disinflationary), risk-on holiday futures bid every index, VIX eased to ~19, and the 10Y sits at a one-week low. That is the macro tail-risk that drove the RISK_OFF lean fading. The counterweight keeps it from being a clean flip: UMich sentiment printed a record-low 44.8 with 1yr inflation expectations at 4.8% (the stagflation core is unresolved), FOMC minutes still flag possible hikes, and Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair 5/22 — a hawkish-leaning new variable. Net read: a TRANSITION, not a confirmed risk-on regime.
Market fade-risk bias: HIGH Unchanged from 5/23 and the single most important input for every name below. Drivers: (1) dealer gamma net-positive & strengthening (+1.11M vs −0.54M on 5/21) → vol-suppressive, mean-reverting, rallies sold; (2) eight straight up weeks + a Dow record = stretched, mean-reversion-vulnerable; (3) record-low sentiment into a rally = fade-prone. This biases every name's Fade-Risk Score up and makes POP-SELL the primary track on all five imminent prints.
§3 News Scan — 24h filter, held names + macro
- ZS NEW bearish (decision-relevant tonight): Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight, PT cut to $155 from $200 — "platform story not playing out" (Red Canary lacks traction), no near-term catalyst. PT $155 is below the $182.37 mark. (Intellectia/MS)
- ZS Bullish counter: Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight, PT $300 (5/22); Guggenheim expects Q3 revenue above consensus with a possible FY guide raise. (GuruFocus 5/22)
- ZS Cyber peer reads this cycle: Varonis +26.9% rev (beat 4.6%) → stock +7.3%; Tenable +9.6% rev (beat 1.2%) → stock −2.7%. Mixed reaction — beats did not guarantee up-moves. (Yahoo/Edge 5/24)
- DELL The live catalyst is the +16.8% 5/22 gap (252.80→295.19) on "upbeat expectations ahead of earnings"; TXN/QCOM data-center strength is a peer tailwind. No fresh 24h filing. (TheStreet 5/22)
- MRVL No fresh 24h single-name catalyst beyond price. NVDA's 5/20 beat-and-fade (−1.3% AH) stays live as an AI-semi peer-fade warning into 5/27. (Benzinga 5/21)
- ORCL No fresh catalyst; long-duration, yields eased mildly (small positive). Next ER ~6/10.
- MACRO Warsh sworn in as Fed chair 5/22; FOMC minutes hawkish; oil −5%+ on Iran/Hormuz de-escalation optimism; UMich record-low sentiment. (Reuters/Investing/TradingEconomics 5/22)
§4 Portfolio Mark & P&L Reconciliation
Marks = UW get_ticker_ohlc_latest_or_date date=2026-05-22 (last reg close), fetched this session. No newer close exists (5/25 holiday).
| Tkr | Sh | Entry | Last 5/22 | USD P&L | AUD P&L | Stop | % to Stop | IVrk | Next ER |
|---|
| MRVL | 41 | 168.53 | 196.33 | +1,139.80 | +1,593.5 | 185.00 | +5.8% | 79.5 | 5/27 AMC |
| ORCL | 83 | 185.24 | 192.08 | +567.72 | +793.7 | 188.98 | +1.6% ⚠ | 78.9 | ~6/10 |
| DELL | 31 | 244.725 | 295.19 | +1,564.42 | +2,187.1 | 260.00 | +11.9% | 92.2 | 5/28 AMC |
| ZS | 48 | 176.05 | 182.37 | +303.36 | +424.1 | 168.13 | +7.8% | 90.5 | 5/26 TONIGHT |
| CRM | 48 | 178.07 | 180.07 | +96.00 | +134.2 | 170.95 | +5.1% | 87.9 | 5/27 AMC |
| MDB | 44 | 323.74 | 326.13 | +105.16 | +147.0 | 304.32 | +6.7% | 90.6 | 5/28 AMC |
P&L reconciliation — PASS
Per-position AUD sum = 1,593.5 + 793.7 + 2,187.1 + 424.1 + 134.2 + 147.0 =
+A$5,279.6 vs header +A$5,279.5; diff <A$1 → OK. Open unrealized
+A$5,279.6 · realized cumulative
+A$3,614.4 ·
NET TOTAL +A$8,894.0. Identical to the 5/23 open mark because the close (5/22) is the same session — confirms no data leakage or phantom moves.
Stop-proximity flag
ORCL +1.6% above its $188.98 stop (within 3%) → next stop-out candidate on any fade. It is the only non-event name and the tightest leash on the book. All others have room: CRM +5.1%, MRVL +5.8%, MDB +6.7%, ZS +7.8%, DELL +11.9%.
§5 Tier 1 + §5.5 Probability Translation — held positions
Conviction = round(E[R]·2 + P(beat)·4 + 3), capped 7.9 unless P(beat)>75% AND E[R]>1.8. Base rates fetched live this session for ZS & CRM; MRVL/DELL/MDB carry <72h 5/23 citations (re-anchor, flagged §10) — pattern re-confirmed via the fresh pulls.
ZS — Q3 FY26, Tue 5/26 AMC (TONIGHT) — HELD 48sh
Beat rate (last 8q):8/8 = 100% (never missed since 2018)
Surprise history:+12.2 / +36.4 / +11.3 / +10.5 / +13.0 / +68.0 / +27.5 / +35.4%
Consensus:EPS est $1.01; rev $834–836M (+23.1% YoY), unchanged 60d
Implied move (live):±13.0%; ATM straddle 5/29 ≈ $23.7; IVrk 90.5
Last 4 1d reactions:+9.8 / −1.5 / −13.0 / −12.2% (two-sided)
Analyst (live):MS DOWNGRADE EW, PT$155 (<spot); Cantor OW $300; Guggenheim rev-beat call
P(beats consensus):85%
P(up 1d post-print):~50% (1 up / 3 down last 4 — fade-prone)
P(up 30d):~52%
E[1d return]:high variance; first-spike monetizable on ±13% IM
E[R-multiple]:~0.40R hold-through (the fade caps it)
Conv = round(0.40×2 + 0.85×4 + 3) = 7.2 hold-through → Pop-sell 8.4 governs. Action: POP-SELL. A 100% beat rate does NOT protect the long side — the MS downgrade (PT below spot) plus Tenable's beat-and-fade are explicit reasons a beat-spike won't hold. See dual-track §6.
MRVL — Q1, Wed 5/27 AMC — HELD 41sh
Beat rate (last 8q):6 beats / 2 in-line / 0 miss = 75% strict
Beat magnitude:~2.6% ex-outlier (12.3% incl Dec'25 +60.6%)
Implied move (live):±11.4%; straddle ~$22.5; IVrk 79.5 (cooled 93.8→79.5)
Last 4 1d reactions:−5.6 / −18.6 / +7.9 / +18.4% (bimodal, avg abs 12.6%)
Analyst (5/22, fresh):Stifel Buy PT$210; cluster Citi 215 / Oppy 200 / WF 195 — spot brackets it
P(beats consensus):74%
P(up 1d post-print):52% (2 up / 2 down)
E[1d return]:0.74×(+11%) + 0.26×(−13%) = +4.7% (high variance)
E[R-multiple]:~1.14R hold-through
Conv = round(1.14×2 + 0.74×4 + 3) = 8.24 raw → CAP 7.9 (E[R] 1.14 < 1.8 blocks >8.0). Pop-sell 8.2 governs. Action: POP-SELL residual 41sh. Half already monetized at $189/$191. Drift +16.5% since entry + NVDA-faded peer = high fade-risk.
CRM — Q1, Wed 5/27 AMC — HELD 48sh
Beat rate (last 8q):7 beats / 1 miss = 88% (miss Oct'24 −1.6%)
Beat magnitude trend:COMPRESSING — recent +24.9 / +13.6 / +4.7 / +1.2 / +6.5%
Implied move (live):±7.6% (thinnest on board); IVrk 87.9
Last 4 1d reactions:−3.3 / −4.9 / +3.7 / +4.0% (steadiest, react_vol ~4%)
Consensus:EPS est $3.13; $163B SPX mega-cap
P(beats consensus):82%
P(up 1d post-print):~52%
E[R-multiple]:~0.30R (thin IM = modest move)
Conv = round(0.30×2 + 0.82×4 + 3) = 6.9 hold-through. Pop-sell 7.0 governs. Action: POP-SELL (marginal). Lowest-drama name and the only one whose steady, low-gap history could justify a small hold-through tranche on a clean guide. Diversifier (SaaS, not semi/cyber).
DELL — Q1 FY27, Thu 5/28 AMC — HELD 31sh
Beat rate (last 8q):7/8 = 88%
The 1 miss:Q1 FY26 (5/29/25) −8.28% — same fiscal quarter reporting now
Implied move (live):±10.0%; IVrk 92.2; +16.8% gap on 5/22
Last 4 1d reactions:−2.1 / −8.9 / +5.8 / +21.9% (bimodal)
Analyst:MS Underweight PT170 (lone bear) vs BofA280 / Citi290 / Mizuho300
P(beats consensus):70% (haircut for same-Q miss precedent)
P(up 1d post-print):50%
E[R-multiple]:~0.30R (good news pre-absorbed in the +16.8% gap)
Conv = round(0.30×2 + 0.70×4 + 3) = 6.4 hold-through. Pop-sell 8.0 governs. Action: POP-SELL 31sh. The +16.8% pre-print gap is textbook pre-absorbed good news = high fade-risk. Biggest unrealized gain on the book (+A$2,187) — protect it. Watch the same-quarter miss.
MDB — Q1, Thu 5/28 AMC — HELD 44sh — HARD-RULE NAME
Beat rate (last 8q):8/8 = 100% — yet last print −22% on a clean double-beat
Last 4 1d reactions:+12.8 / +38.0 / +22.2 / −22.2% (react_vol ~22%, HIGHEST gap risk)
Implied move (live):±13.1% (largest on board); IVrk 90.6
Flow:net premium −$2.59M (bearish); optically call-heavy but premium net-bearish
Structure:death cross (50DMA < 200DMA, Apr 2); downtrend regime
P(beats consensus):85% — but the beat is the base case, not the catalyst
P(up 1d post-print):~45% (guide/valuation coin-flip, fat left tail)
E[R-multiple]:~0.20R hold-through (structurally unsafe)
Formula raw 6.8 → CAPPED ≤5 hold-through by hard rule; Pop-sell 8.6 governs. Action: POP-SELL ONLY — NEVER hold through. The last comparable was a clean double-beat that still gapped −22%; on 44sh that's ≈ −A$4.4k overnight. Size the downside tail at 1.3–1.8× the live IM (low-200s is within the historical envelope).
ORCL — non-earnings (next ER ~6/10) — HELD 83sh
Mark / IVrk:$192.08; IVrk 78.9
New input since 5/23:oil −5.7% + 10Y at 1-wk low ease the long-duration headwind
Carried risks:fraud class actions, $50B capex, Schiff energy bill — ALL still ACTIVE
P(beats consensus):62% (not pre-earnings; informational only)
Non-earnings conviction 5.7 (yesterday 5.2, Δ+0.5). New input: oil/yields easing; capped at reweight +0.3 + new-input ~0.2 = +0.5 ceiling, held at cap. Action: HOLD, tight stop $188.98. The book's tightest leash (+1.6%). Pre-earnings dual-track decision deferred to ~Jun 8–9. Warsh-as-chair tilts the long-duration risk hawkish.
§5.6 Dual-Track Exit Plan — hold-through vs pop-sell + Fade-Risk referee
| Tkr | P(beat) | E[R] | Hold-Thru | Pop-Sell | Fade-Risk | Primary | Liquidity |
|---|
| ZS 5/26 | 85% | 0.40 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | POP-SELL | 48sh ≪ ADV |
| MRVL 5/27 | 74% | 1.14 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.0 | POP-SELL | ~20M ADV |
| CRM 5/27 | 82% | 0.30 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | POP-SELL | mega-cap |
| DELL 5/28 | 70% | 0.30 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | POP-SELL | ~5M ADV |
| MDB 5/28 | 85% | 0.20 | ≤5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | POP-SELL | 44sh |
| ORCL ~6/10 | 62% | 0.10 | 5.7 | n/a | n/a | HOLD | — |
ZSPop 8.4 · Fade 8.0
5/26 AMC tonight · $182.37 · IM ±13.0%
Fade drivers gamma-positive +1.5, IVrk 90.5 +1.4, STAGFLATION +1.5, drift +1.0, two-sided +0.4, MS downgrade +1.0
Execution Trim into any pre-print run today; sell residual 48sh first 1–3 min after the 4:05pm ET print; do NOT hold to settle. Out before the number if it breaks ~$176.
MRVLPop 8.2 · Fade 8.0
5/27 AMC · $196.33 · IM ±11.4%
Fade drivers drift +16.5% since entry, gamma-positive, NVDA beat-and-fade peer, STAGFLATION, IVrk high
Execution Trim into pre-print strength; sell residual 41sh first 1–3 min. Hold to settle ONLY on a genuine guide-raise that drops fade-risk. Clears instantly vs ~20M ADV.
CRMPop 7.0 · Fade 6.5
5/27 AMC · $180.07 · IM ±7.6%
Fade drivers IVrk 87.9, STAGFLATION, gamma-positive bias; steady low-gap history pulls slightly toward hold
Execution Trim/exit into pre-print strength before 5/27 AMC. Thinnest IM = smallest spike to sell; the lone name a small hold-through tranche could be defended on a clean guide.
DELLPop 8.0 · Fade 7.5
5/28 AMC · $295.19 (+16.8% gap) · IM ±10.0%
Fade drivers +16.8% pre-print gap = good news pre-absorbed; IVrk 92.2; same-Q miss precedent; MS bear PT170
Execution Trim into any further run; sell residual 31sh first 1–3 min 5/28. Protect the book's biggest gain (+A$2,187).
MDBPop 8.6 · Fade 8.5
5/28 AMC · $326.13 · IM ±13.1% · HARD RULE
Fade drivers two-sided gap history +2.0, IVrk 90.6, gamma-positive, STAGFLATION, net-bearish premium, death cross
Execution NEVER hold through. Trim into any run; sell residual 44sh first 1–3 min 5/28. Size tail 1.3–1.8× IM. Out before the number on light guide / Atlas decel / new sales-exec exit.
ORCLHold 5.7
~6/10 · $192.08 · not pre-earnings
Status Recovery off $178.80 is price action, not a catalyst. Long-duration headwind partially eased (oil/yields) but value-rotation drag + hawkish Warsh persist.
Execution HOLD, tight stop $188.98 (within 3% — tightest leash). Pre-earnings dual-track decision deferred to ~Jun 8–9.
§6 Tier 2 — 8-Signal Overlay (event held positions; feeds the Fade-Risk referee)
| Signal | ZS | MRVL | CRM | DELL | MDB |
|---|
| 1. Options skew | Neg −0.3 | Neutral 0 | Neutral 0 | Pos +0.2 | Neg −0.5 |
| 2. Term structure (front IV bid) | +0.6 (IVrk 90.5) | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.6 (IVrk 92.2) | +0.5 |
| 3. Whisper / analyst momentum | −0.5 (MS downgrade) | +0.4 (Stifel 5/22) | 0 | −0.2 (MS bear) | −0.3 (net-bearish flow) |
| 4. PEAD historical 1d | −0.3 (3 of 4 down) | −0.2 (bimodal) | +0.2 (steady) | −0.2 (bimodal) | −0.4 (−22% last) |
| 5. Sector RS vs SPY | +0.2 (cyber defensive) | −0.2 (semi soft) | 0 | +0.3 (AI-server bid) | −0.2 (data-tech weak) |
| 6. Peer read-through | Mixed (VRNS+ / TENB−) | −0.4 (NVDA faded) | 0 | +0.3 (TXN/QCOM) | −0.3 (own −22% precedent) |
| 7. Tariff / China exposure | 0 | −0.2 | 0 | −0.2 | 0 |
| 8. T1↔T2 alignment | pop-conviction confirmed | confirmed | confirmed | confirmed | confirmed |
| Net T2 → fade-risk lean | fade up | fade up | neutral | fade up | fade up hard |
§7 Conviction-Δ Discipline (vs 5/23 report)
| Tkr | 5/23 | Today | Δ | Status | New inputs cited |
|---|
| ZS | 8.3 | 8.4 | +0.1 | OK | MS downgrade raises fade not pop-conv; straddle re-priced ±13%. Net flat. |
| MRVL | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | OK | No new single-name input since 5/23 (same 5/22 close). Flat. |
| CRM | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | OK | Flat; base rates re-confirmed live this session. |
| DELL | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | OK | Flat; +16.8% gap already in the 5/23 mark. |
| MDB | 8.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | OK | Flat. |
| ORCL | 5.2 | 5.7 | +0.5 | CITED+CAPPED | Oil −5.7% + 10Y 1-wk low ease long-duration headwind (new 24h macro). Capped at +0.3 reweight + ~0.2 new = +0.5 ceiling. Held at cap. |
§8 Carried-Forward Risks
| Tkr | Risk | Status |
|---|
| ZS | Drift-up-into-print fade (DE shape) | ✅ STILL ACTIVE |
| ZS | NEW: MS downgrade EW / PT$155 (below spot), "no near-term catalyst" | ✅ NEW ACTIVE |
| MRVL | Drift-up-into-print fade; IVrk elevated | 🔄 PARTIALLY EASED (IVrk 93.8→79.5) |
| DELL | Q1-miss precedent (same fiscal quarter reporting 5/28) | ✅ STILL ACTIVE |
| DELL | MS Underweight PT170 caps upside; AI-hardware laggard | ✅ STILL ACTIVE |
| MDB | Beat-and-gap-down (−22% last print); guide/valuation tail; death cross | ✅ STILL ACTIVE (hard rule) |
| ORCL | Fraud class actions / $50B capex / Schiff bill | ✅ STILL ACTIVE (no resolving data) |
| ORCL | Long-duration vs rising-yield / hawkish Fed | 🔄 PARTIALLY EASED (10Y −2.6bp, oil −5.7%; Warsh hawkish offsets) |
| BOOK | Severe catalyst stack: 5 prints in 3 sessions, ~no dry powder | ✅ STILL ACTIVE |
§9 §8 Correlation-Adjusted Book Conviction
Data gap persists — pairwise sector-reasoned, NOT tool-confirmed
UW get_correlations remains noisy (carried from 5/23). Estimated pairwise: MRVL–DELL ~0.60 (AI-capex); ZS–CRM–MDB ~0.45 (software/data); ORCL ~0.40. Avg ~0.42 (0.4–0.7 band).
Primary-track (pop) convictions 8.4 / 8.2 / 7.0 / 8.0 / 8.6 + ORCL hold 5.7. Raw sum ≈ 45.9. Band-adjusted eff = max(8.6) + 0.5·(37.3) =
27.3 ≈ 59% of raw → CONCENTRATION FLAG (<80%). Six names, two tight clusters, five stacked prints.
Mitigant: all five event names are pop-sells to be exited into strength within three sessions — the book shrinks fast by design.
§10 Watch List (next 48h)
| When (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|
| TONIGHT 5/26 AMC | ZS Q3 (HELD) · call 4:30pm | First print of the gauntlet; pop-sell |
| Wed 5/27 AMC | MRVL + CRM (HELD) + SNOW, HPQ | Two held pop-sells same session; SNOW/HPQ peer reads |
| Thu 5/28 AMC | DELL + MDB (HELD) + OKTA | Two held pop-sells; OKTA cyber peer |
| Thu 5/28 08:30 | Jobless claims | Labor pulse |
| Ongoing | Oil (Hormuz headlines), Warsh first comments | Regime confirm/deny |
§11 Scenario Planning (48–72h)
| Scenario | Prob | Trigger | Book impact |
|---|
| Bull | 30% | Risk-on flip confirms (oil stays down, yields ease); prints spike and hold green long enough to pop-sell into strength | Book exits +A$10–14k net; trim aggressively into spikes |
| Base | 45% | Mixed prints; gamma-positive fade-bias plays out — spikes that fade (DE/MDB shape). Pop-sell banks the spike; hold-through bleeds | Book exits ~+A$8–10k net, near current. This is why every name is pop-sell primary |
| Bear | 25% | One+ beat-and-gap-downs (MDB tail, DELL same-Q miss, ZS post-downgrade) and/or ORCL stops at $188.98 first | Worst clustered downside ~−A$5–7k off peak if hold-through used; pop-sell caps most. Mitigant: tight ORCL stop, no event hold-throughs |
§12 Key Takeaways
- The book is fully loaded into a 5-print, 3-session gauntlet with ~no dry powder. The job from here is EXITING into strength, not adding.
- Regime is transitioning STAGFLATION_HOT → risk-on (oil −5.7%, risk-on futures), but dealer gamma is net-positive → fade-risk bias HIGH → all five event names are POP-SELL primary.
- ZS tonight: 8/8 beat history, but the fresh MS downgrade (PT$155 < spot) + Tenable's beat-and-fade peer read mean a beat-spike is not to be trusted. Trim today, sell residual first 1–3 min, don't hold to settle.
- MRVL 7.9 / DELL 8.0 / MDB 8.6 pop-sell — all in the high-fade zone. MDB hard rule intact: never hold-through; size tail 1.3–1.8× IM.
- ORCL 5.7 (HOLD, stop $188.98) is the one non-event risk — +1.6% above stop, the tightest leash, next stop-out candidate on any fade.
- No new initiations. Book already 99% deployed and concentration-flagged; the five pop-sells will free capital fast. Prefer a non-tech diversifier when re-deploying.
- Net total P&L +A$8,894 (open +A$5,280 / realized +A$3,614). Unchanged vs 5/23 because the marking session (5/22) is unchanged — confirms no phantom data.