Append-only · life-of-trade record

Trade Journal

Every price fetch, regime change, IV shift, dark-pool flow, analyst event, and exit is logged with timestamp + citation. Source of truth for the 20-event dual-track calibration backtest. FX 0.7153 · Capital AUD 100,000 · 8% buffer A$8,857.

Total Entries
62+
since 2026-05-19
Open Positions
2
DELL · AVGO
Calibration Events
4
n=4 · DE · ROST · ZS · MRVL/CRM
Net Total P&L
+A$14,322
realized + unrealized

§Journal entries

newest first
SESSION 2026-05-28 — DELL print + AVGO carry day
DELL — exit pre-print (auto-trim by stop)
2026-05-28 · pre-mkt
EventAH spike to $327.69 followed by settle $317.39 by 5/28 00:00 UTC. Stop $304 raised by journal pre-print. Plan: pop-sell first 1–3 min on print.
Cushion+0.43% above stop on 4pm mark — tight leash into print
TrackPOP-SELL conv 8.1 · Fade-Risk 8/10 · Primary POP-SELL
Rule fired3/3 peer fade-pattern (DE/MDB/ZS); IVrk 95; +30% 5-day run-up; insider sales >$1.08B; print +1d sustain prob ~42% (premium-multiple class)
POP-SELL FR 8/10 conv 8.1
REGIME — STAGFLATION_HOT de-intensifying
2026-05-28 · 04:30 AEST
Live dataWTI $90.40 bouncing on Iran-deal uncertainty; 10Y 4.50%, 30Y 5.03%; VIX 18.53 ↑ from sub-17; SPX setting fresh highs Tuesday but flat 5/27 — internals turning
FlowSPY 5/27 net premium −$41.6M bearish flip from +$92.4M bullish 5/26. Cleanest single-session sentiment shift in regime data
BiasFADE-RISK HIGH (8/10). Every spike is a sell candidate this week unless guide-raise uncontested
SESSION 2026-05-27 — MRVL + CRM print AMC (stacked binary)
MRVL — exit residual 41sh pre-print first 1–3 min
2026-05-27 · 09:30 ET
Fill$207.41 · realized +A$2,229 on residual
TrackPOP-SELL conv 8.5 · vindicated
NoteDrift +13% since entry; IVrk 81; clean exit-into-strength playbook
EXIT POP-SELL
CRM — exit manual @ $180.00
2026-05-27 · pre-print
Fill$180.00 · realized +A$134 on 48sh
CatalystBofA downgrade Buy → Underperform 5/18 PT $160. UBS Neutral PT $185. Position already trimmed
EXIT downgrade tag
SESSION 2026-05-26 — ZS print AMC
ZS — exit pre-print @ ~$182
2026-05-26 · pre-print
Fill~$182 · realized +A$~424 on 48sh
Print outcomeQ4 guide light → −20.8% AH to $146.24. Confirms 3/3 high-Fade-Risk pattern
CalibrationPost-mortem: pop-sell VINDICATED. Hold-through would have lost ~A$1,400.
EXIT calibration #3
ZS — POST-MORTEM (calibration event #3)
2026-05-27 · 02:50 ET
PredictedPop-sell conv 8.4 · Fade-Risk 8 · Beat-and-light-guide pattern flagged
RealizedRevenue beat $850M vs $835M, EPS beat $1.08 vs $1.01, but Q4 guide light → −20.8% AH
OutcomePOP-SELL WIN, HOLD-THROUGH LOSS. 3/3 fades on premium-multiple names confirmed (DE/MDB/ZS)
Tag[n=3] · FR8 + premium-mult → guaranteed fade until proven otherwise
SESSION 2026-05-22 — AVGO entry override + stop raises
AVGO — ENTRY override of DEFER call · 76sh @ $416.00
2026-05-22 · 09:40 AEST
CostUS$31,616 = A$44,200. Cash A$53,328 → A$9,128 (8% buffer A$8,857 intact, surplus A$271)
ThesisCustom-ASIC/XPU hyperscaler ramp + AI-networking switch demand + VMware margin accretion. Next ER 6/3 AMC (12d). Conv 7.2 (Buy line); pop-sell 9.2
Override flagPDS report & §5.5 BOTH called AVGO DEFER (re-concentrates AI-capex). User overrode → logged for calibration honesty
ConcentrationAI-capex cluster (MRVL+DELL+AVGO) now 82% of book conviction. 3 correlated AI prints in 7 days
ENTRY override concentration ⚠
BOOK — trailing stops raised on 4 positions
2026-05-22 · 23:45 AEST
MRVL$178.00 → $185.00 (locks +A$944)
ORCL$175.00 → $188.98 (tight)
DELL$224.00 → $260.00 (locks +A$2,150)
LogicDELL broke prior 52wk-high $263.99; MRVL print T-3; lock locked gains ahead of binary stack
SESSION 2026-05-21 — DE pre-print exit · ROST post-print exit
DE — EXIT pre-print de-risk @ $570.82
2026-05-21 · 18:18 AEST
FillSELL ALL 30sh @ $570.82 (+2.5% above 560.46 close) · realized +$239.10 = +A$334.3
SetupConv 4.82. Zacks ESP −8.26%. ~3% IM. STAGFLATION_HOT/RISK_OFF. POP-SELL / pre-print exit-into-strength
EXIT POP-SELL
DE — POST-MORTEM (calibration event #1)
2026-05-21 · post-print
PredictedPop-sell · Fade-Risk ~8 · P(beat) call
RealizedBEAT +14.1% (EPS 6.55 vs 5.74) but ROUND-TRIPPED 576 → 540.76. Hard fade.
OutcomeExit +A$334 vs hold-to-now −A$926 (better by ~A$1,260). POP-SELL WIN, HOLD-THROUGH LOSS
Tag[n=1] · Fade-Risk@print ~8 correctly predicted full round-trip
ROST — EXIT full 91sh @ $231.00 (post-print pop-sell)
2026-05-21 · 16:45 ET
Fill91sh AH @ $231.00 · spike $237.88 → settle $231.75 · IVrk 98.5 maxed
P&L+$1,809.08 = +A$2,529.1 (+9.4%). Proceeds $21,021 (~A$29,388 freed)
NotePOP-SELL into AH strength; sold residual on fade as IV crush began. Q1 beat-and-raise: EPS $2.02 vs $1.70; comps +17%; raised Q2 + FY
EXIT calibration #2
ROST — POST-MORTEM (calibration event #2)
2026-05-22 · 07:20 AEST
PredictedHold-thru conv 7.86 · Fade-Risk ~5 (SPLIT call)
RealizedSPIKED $237.88 (+9.5%) → faded modestly → settled ~$231.75 (+6.7%, held green). NOT full round-trip
OutcomeBOTH LENSES WIN. POP-SELL: spike eminently sellable. HOLD-THROUGH: settled green, no round-trip
CalibrationFade-Risk ~5 correctly predicted SPLIT behavior. [n=2: FR8 hard-fade, FR5 mild-fade+hold — referee directionally correct]
SESSION 2026-05-20 — MRVL TP1 trim
MRVL — TRIM 40 of 81sh @ $191.46 (TP1 into strength)
2026-05-20
Fill40sh @ $191.46 · realized +$917.20 = +A$1,282.3
Residual41sh continues to ride into 5/27 print
TP1 scale-out
Full journal format

Each entry follows the canonical schema: [TICKER] — [ISO timestamp] — [EVENT TYPE] followed by Event, Live data (cited), Impact on position, P&L now, Action/rule fired, Notes/reasoning. The full append-only file is preserved separately as the authoritative source.