Earnings Center · active signals

Signals

Probability stacks per ticker · dual-track conviction (hold-through vs pop-sell) · Fade-Risk referee · explicit catalyst chains. Conviction below 6 is watchlist, not capital deployment.

Regime

STAGFLATION_HOT

Market Fade-Risk Bias

HIGH · 8 / 10

Live

§01Dual-track summary

2 active signals

Ticker	Hold-Thru	Pop-Sell	Fade-Risk	Primary Track	Catalyst	Trigger
DELL	5.6	8.1	8/10	POP-SELL	Q1 FY27 print 5/28 AMC	Stop $304 · auto-trim on print
AVGO	8.0	6.5	3/10	HOLD-THROUGH	Q2 FY26 print 6/03 AMC	Carry · no stop tighten on drift

DELL · Q1 FY27 · 2026-05-28 AMC · 31sh @ $244.73

Beat rate (last 8 qtrs)7 of 8 = 87.5%

1-miss precedentQ1 FY26 −8.28% (same quarter reporting)

Polymarket P(beat $2.95)94%

Implied move (options)~9% (IVrk 95.14)

Run-up into print (5d)+30% reg-close · +37% incl AH

Last 4 reactions (1d post)+3.7% / +1.2% / −2.1% / +4.0%

Analyst PT distributionavg ~$245 (MS $170 / Mizuho $300) — close 25% ABOVE avg PT

Insider distribution (90d)Michael Dell + execs sold >$1.08B

Net premium 5/27 (UW)+$710K (mildly bullish, down from +$14.97M 5/26)

P(beat headline)~85%

P(beat + guide raise)~60%

P(up 1d sustain to close)~42% (premium-multiple run-up · ZS/MDB-class)

E[R] hold-through~1.4

E[R] pop-sell~2.2

Hold-Thru Conviction

5.6

Capped by ZS/MDB premium-multiple rule

Pop-Sell Conviction · PRIMARY

8.1

Fade-Risk 8/10 · exit-into-strength

Conviction (hold-through): 5.6 = round1(E[R]·2 + P(beat)·4 + base_floor) = 1.4·2 + 0.85·4 = 6.2; CAP applied for premium-multiple BEAT_AND_GUIDE_FADE pattern (ZS/MDB rule): cap at 5.6 hold-through.
Conviction (pop-sell): 8.1 = P(initial-spike)·4 + min(spike_mag%/3, 3) + liquidity_floor = 0.75·4 + min(9/3, 3) + 3 = 9.0 → cap 10 → 8.1 after Fade-Risk dampener for elevated AH.

Catalyst Chain · POP-SELL

+30% 5-day run-up · IVrk 95 (extreme crowding) · insider sales >$1.08B · close 25% ABOVE avg PT · 3/3 peer fade pattern (DE/MDB/ZS) · Fade-Risk HIGH market regime · gamma-positive vol-suppressive tape · low P(up-1d-sustain) for premium-multiple class.

AVGO · Q2 FY26 · 2026-06-03 AMC · 32sh @ $427.50

Beat rate (last 8 qtrs)8 of 8 = 100%

Surprise history (last 4)+1.48% / +4.28% / +1.81% / +0.64% (avg +2.05%)

Surprise std dev (last 8)~1.7% — disciplined sandbagger

Implied move (options)~6–7% (IVrk 67.9, less crowded than DELL)

Run-up into print (5d)~+2% (flat-to-slightly-up; less stretched)

Last 4 reactions (1d post)+5.1% / +8.6% / +24% / +2.2%

Analyst PT distributionavg ~$510 (MS $470 / Wells $545); close 17% BELOW avg PT

Net premium 5/27 (UW)+$8.7M bullish (up from +$2.9M 5/26)

Sector contextMU $1T validation · AI-capex strong · Citi top semi-pick 2026

P(beat headline)~90%

P(beat + guide raise)~70%

P(up 1d post-print)~58%

P(up 30d post-print)~62%

E[R] hold-through~2.1 (+5/+8/+24 tail history)

E[R] pop-sell~1.5

Hold-Thru Conviction · PRIMARY

8.0

8/8 beats · narrow surprise band · carry

Pop-Sell Conviction

6.5

Not print-week · dampened

Conviction (hold-through): 8.0 = round1(E[R]·2 + P(beat)·4) = 2.1·2 + 0.90·4 = 7.8; rounded 8.0 with +0.2 sector tailwind. Cap check: P(beat) > 75% ✓ AND E[R] > 1.8 ✓ → no cap applied.
Conviction (pop-sell): 6.5 = 0.58·4 + min(7/3, 3) + 3 = 7.65 → dampened 6.5 for "carry not print-week"; pop-sell does not apply primarily.

Catalyst Chain · HOLD-THROUGH

8/8 clean beat streak · narrow surprise band (1.7% std-dev) · close 17% BELOW avg PT (room to run) · positive PEAD tail history (+24% one quarter) · MU $1T market-cap validation TAM intact · Citi names top semi-pick 2026 · sector flow bullish · entry conviction floor met.

§02Watchlist · next 14 days

conviction < 6 · no capital

Ticker	Event	Date	Hold	Pop	Reason on bench
CRWD	Q1 FY27 print	6/03 AMC	6.1	6.4	AI-capex re-concentration with held AVGO
PANW	Q3 FY26 print	6/02 AMC	6.3	5.9	Below Buy line · uncertain guide
ADBE	Q2 FY26 print	6/11 AMC	5.5	5.0	Below Buy line
SNOW	Q1 FY27 print	5/27 AMC	—	—	Printed · monitored only · no entry

How signals are generated

Every signal block fuses point-in-time fundamentals (FMP Premium + Yahoo PIT collector), options sentiment (Unusual Whales IV rank, net premium, GEX), dark-pool prints, institutional delta, and macro regime classification. Conviction is bounded by explicit caps (premium-multiple BEAT_AND_GUIDE_FADE rule, MDB hold-through hard rule, regime dampeners). See methodology for the full formula.