A standing analytical framework, a falsifiable conviction formula, and an explicit operational rulebook. Built around one belief: every trade competes for scarce capital.
Every event passes through seven sequential stages. Skipping a stage is not allowed; missing data is flagged as a DATA GAP. The output is a desk call, not a hint.
A single-paragraph desk call before any analysis loads. This locks the prediction before motivated reasoning sets in. Thresholds: Strong Buy ≥ 8 · Buy 6–7 · below 6 = Watchlist / Avoid.
Beat-rate (last 8 quarters), surprise std-dev, estimate revision velocity, Polymarket pricing where available. Guide risk is scored independently — "beat-and-light-guide" is the single most common fade pattern in premium-multiple names (ZS, MDB confirmed n=3).
Run-up exhaustion (5d/20d), IV rank, options crowding, analyst PT vs current price, insider distribution (90d). When the stock is already trading 25% above the average analyst PT, the bar to beat is the price itself, not the consensus EPS.
52-week structure, ATR-anchored stops, SPY GEX context (positive gamma = vol-suppressive = rallies fade-prone). Sector-relative strength. Daily mark vs trigger reference for divergence flag.
If the desk can't articulate three independent catalyst links (fundamental + technical + flow), conviction drops automatically. The catalyst chain is the brief. Stops are implied-move-anchored or ATR-anchored, never round-number-based.
Effective conviction = max + 0.5·(sum − max), correlation-adjusted (Phase 8). Concentration flag triggers below 80% raw-to-effective ratio. Regime context (STAGFLATION_HOT, RISK_OFF) dampens long-duration growth into rising-yield tape.
Two scores published: hold-through (carry to event) and pop-sell (exit into spike). A Fade-Risk referee picks the primary track. Action is explicit — size, stop, trigger, and rule that would change the call.
Drift +10% into print · IVrk > 90 · stagflation regime · gamma-positive tape · close ABOVE avg PT · premium-multiple class. Action: primary track is POP-SELL. Exit into spike, do not hold through unless guide-raise is uncontested.
Confirmed pattern (n=3): DE 5/21 round-trip, MDB 5/28, ZS 5/26 (−20.8% AH).
Mixed signals · run-up modest · IVrk normal · sector-supportive context. Action: SPLIT call — both tracks have merit. Trim into strength, hold residual.
Confirmed (n=2): ROST 5/21 mild-fade-then-hold (both tracks WIN); ORCL hold-bias confirmed.
Flat-to-mild run-up · narrow surprise band · clean beat streak · room to PT · sector tailwind. Action: primary track is HOLD-THROUGH. Carry to event, no stop tighten on drift.
Active example: AVGO 6/03 carry (8/8 beats, narrow band, 17% below avg PT).
Every binary event is scored against BOTH tracks after print, regardless of outcome. Calibration adjustments are explicit, sourced, and logged. The 20-event backtest is the gate to v3 of the system.
Point-in-time fundamentals, analyst PT distribution, earnings calendar, EPS history. Cross-validated against Yahoo PIT collector to catch the FMP annual÷4 EPS artifact (affects ~82/109 tickers).
IV rank, implied move, GEX, dark-pool prints, short interest, institutional delta, options chains, net premium flow. Six engine functions integrated into build_composite.
Task-scheduled (6h cadence) point-in-time fundamentals as Zacks replacement. Quarterly periods, revision diffs after 2nd daily run. 351 success / 320 empty / 0 errors at last collection.
Self-hosted on demand. Runs the prompt routing and composite scoring pipeline. Ephemeral URL per session.
Single-file SQLite at E:\PIT data\pit.sqlite. Universe of ~99–109 large-cap tickers. Signal registry with completion flags, 150-min staleness timeout.
Flask dashboard on port 5057, fronted by Cloudflare Tunnel at signals.pinnacledominion.com. Discord + Telegram webhooks for fill alerts and regime-change events.
Every position must outperform the next-best alternative on a falsifiable score. Conviction below 6 is watchlist, not capital deployment. No portfolio slot exists by default.
If the desk can't articulate three independent catalyst links (fundamental + technical + flow), conviction is capped. No exceptions, no narrative-only entries.
No ticker is graded without comparing the option-implied move to its trailing realized move. The delta is the edge.
The journal's OPEN POSITIONS header is the authoritative source on conflicts. Daily report or trigger-prompt divergence is flagged; the journal's position is booked.
Every binary event is scored against both tracks after print, regardless of outcome. Calibration adjustments are explicit and sourced.
Never hold-through on MDB. The pattern is too clean (post-print fade observed across multiple events). Hold-through is policy-banned for this ticker.