Realized P&L, calibration backtest, dual-track scoring outcomes per event. Every binary event scored against both tracks regardless of which we ran — the only honest way to grade the referee.
* AVGO 5/22 stopped at $411 (−A$531); re-entered 5/22 PM at $416 (still open as carry, separate position). MRVL counted twice: T1 trim 5/20 + T2 residual 5/27.
The Fade-Risk referee gets graded on every binary event regardless of which track we ran. A directionally correct call (referee chose POP-SELL and the print faded, or chose HOLD-THRU and the print held) is a WIN. The goal is to hit n=20 with ≥ 75% referee accuracy before v3.
4 / 4 directionally correct on Fade-Risk referee track-pick. Three HIGH (≥7) → POP-SELL ran and won. One MID (~5) → SPLIT called, both tracks won. Zero referee misses in the sample. Confidence in v2.1 Phase 1 thresholds: PROVISIONAL PASS, gated on reaching n=20.
Next calibration events: DELL 5/28 (FR 8/10, POP-SELL) · AVGO 6/03 (FR 3/10, HOLD-THRU) · CRWD 6/03 · ADBE 6/11.
| Tkr | Sh | Entry | Exit | Days held | Track | P&L AUD | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 30 | 562.85 | 570.82 | ~3 | POP-SELL | +334.3 | Pre-print exit vindicated |
| MRVL (T1) | 40 | 168.53 | 191.46 | ~2 | TP1 trim | +1,282.3 | Scale-out into strength |
| ROST | 91 | 211.12 | 231.00 | ~3 | POP-SELL | +2,529.1 | Beat-and-raise, AH spike sold |
| AVGO (1st) | 76 | 427.50 | 411.00 | ~2 | STOP | −531.2 | Stop-out · re-entered later |
| ZS | 48 | 176.05 | ~182.00 | ~5 | POP-SELL | +424.1 | Pre-print exit · vindicated |
| MRVL (T2) | 41 | 168.53 | 207.41 | ~7 | POP-SELL | +2,229 | Residual exit first 1–3 min |
| CRM | 48 | 178.07 | 180.00 | ~7 | POP-SELL | +134.2 | Downgrade-tagged exit |
| MDB | 44 | 323.74 | ~360 | ~7 | POP-SELL | +2,407 | Hard rule honored: no hold-thru |
| ORCL | 83 | 185.24 | ~194 | ~9 | HOLD | +2,200 | Stop-trail exit on yield re-accel |
| Total realized | +A$11,808 | 8W / 1L · 89% hit rate | |||||
Gates remaining: (1) reach n = 20 calibration events on Fade-Risk referee accuracy · (2) walk-forward Phase 10 backtest on historical universe · (3) Kelly sizing / max-loss Phase 9 integration. Provisional pass at n=4 — sample too small for production claims. The discipline is real, the sample is not yet statistical.